Warmer and Drier Summers Are
Stressing Jhansi's Water Availability

Historical IMD data reveals a compounding heat-drought trajectory across eight vulnerable blocks in Jhansi, a critical Bundelkhand water-stressed zone.

4.5×
Higher summer warming rate than UP state mean
6%
Rise in extreme hot days (>40°C) over last decade
4/8
Blocks with highest risk to water security
8/8
Blocks facing growing intensity of severe heatwaves
Data IMD 1901–2024
·
Method Mann-Kendall trend analysis
·
Scale 8 blocks, Jhansi district
·
Baseline IPCC AR6 · 1981–2010
·
Access Free gated download

Jhansi District Climate Risk Assessment

Report 01 · Summer Heat & Water Stress
18 pages  ·  IMD Data 1951–2024  ·  Free PDF

Hydroclimatic Variability and Water Availability in Jhansi District, Uttar Pradesh

What's inside
Increasing summer temperatures — 4.5× higher warming rate than UP state mean
Pre-monsoon rainfall trends: Jhansi rising at twice the rate of UP state (0.009889 vs 0.004508)
6% rise in extremely hot days (>40°C) in last decade (2015–2024) vs 1951 baseline
4/8 blocks with highest risk to water security & 8/8 facing growing intensity of severe heatwaves
📄 18 pages · PDF · Free
Key Metrics · Report 01
Heat and drought are compounding Jhansi's water crisis
4.5×
Jhansi's summer warming rate vs UP state mean — while state trend is slightly cooling
37 → 40
Average hot days per year (74 yr baseline) vs last decade (2015–2024)
4/8
Blocks classified at highest water security risk
8/8
All blocks experiencing growing severity of heatwaves

About the Research

The Jhansi Hydroclimatic Assessment is a multi-volume study examining how shifting rainfall and temperature patterns are reshaping water availability across Bundelkhand's most vulnerable district.

Data & Methods

IMD gridded rainfall (0.25°×0.25°, 1901–2024) and temperature records (1°×1°, 1951–2024). Trends computed using Mann-Kendall analysis with Sen's slope. IPCC AR6 1981–2010 baseline.

Who This Is For

Water planners, agricultural policymakers, district collectors, NGO practitioners, climate researchers, and finance professionals engaged in climate risk across semi-arid India.

Abstract

Key Findings — Block-Level Maps
Babina 7.8 mm/day Moth 7.2 mm/day Chirgaon 6.9 mm/day Jhansi 6.5 mm/day Gursarai 6.8 mm/day Mauranipur 5.8 mm/day Bangra 6.2 mm/day Samthar 6.6 mm/day Jhansi Block 6.5 mm/day avg. Below district avg Low (5.5) High (8.0 mm/day) IPCC Baseline · ClimAgro Analytics 2025

Fig. 4b · Average daily monsoon rainfall (mm) across Jhansi blocks, 1981–2010 · IPCC AR6 baseline

Block-wise Average Monsoon Rainfall — Jhansi (1981–2010) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 7.8 7.2 6.9 6.5 6.8 5.8 6.6 Babina Moth Chirgaon Jhansi Gursarai Mauranipur Samthar mm/day ClimAgro Analytics · IPCC AR6 Baseline 2025

Fig. 5 · Block-wise average daily monsoon rainfall comparison — Jhansi District vs UP State · 1981–2010

Babina +1.8°C Moth +1.6°C Chirgaon +1.5°C Jhansi +1.9°C ▲ Gursarai +1.6°C Mauranipur +1.3°C Bangra +1.5°C Samthar +1.7°C Jhansi Block Highest warming: +1.9°C 1951–2024 trend +1.0°C +2.0°C IPCC AR6 · ClimAgro Analytics 2025

Fig. 2c–d · Summer mean temperature change (°C) · Jhansi blocks vs UP state · 1951–2024

Summer Mean Temperature Trend — Jhansi District (1951–2024) +2.0°C +1.5°C +1.0°C +0.5°C 1951 1971 1994 2024 +1.9°C Jhansi avg. 2024 Source: IMD · IPCC AR6 · ClimAgro Analytics 2025

Fig. 2d · Summer mean temperature trend (°C change) — Jhansi district · 73-year record · 1951–2024

Key Quantitative Findings
Full Report Contents

The full 18-page PDF includes detailed block-level spatial risk maps, IMD rainfall trend analysis across all 8 blocks of Jhansi district, heatwave intensity projections, Sen's slope magnitude tables, and policy-ready adaptation recommendations aligned with IPCC AR6 frameworks.

Additional sections cover groundwater depletion indices, seasonal onset shift analysis, Tx5d extreme heat day frequencies, and a comparative risk matrix for agricultural planning across Bundelkhand's most vulnerable blocks.

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